November 17, 2003

Ten minutes to midnight

The rebel factions in Cote d'Ivoire declared a state of emergency in the areas they hold after the failure of peace talks this weekend in Accra. The declaration was made by the New Forces coalition, which includes the northern MPCI faction as well as the two smaller western groups.

If the MPCI goes back to war, then the Marcoussis power-sharing agreement is basically dead. The MPCI is the strongest of the rebel armies and has been much more consistent than the western factions in holding to the cease-fire; the peace has held largely because of the MPCI's willingness to give it a chance. Unless mediators can pull off a miracle, it seems that the brinksmanship in which both sides have engaged is about to reignite the civil war. This would place the French peacekeepers in the awkward position of abandoning a friendly government or openly taking sides - a position where any decision they make is likely to be wrong.

Posted by jonathan at November 17, 2003 07:55 PM
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